Isra’ila da Amurka tun tuni suka tsara shirin kai harin soja kan Kasar Iran, kuma sun zana wasu muhimman manufofi da suke son cimmawa ta wannan hari. Saboda haka, da sun cimma waɗannan manufofi, da ana kiran su zakarun yaki. Amma a aikace, ba su kai ga ko ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan manufofi ba.
Manufofin Isra’ila da Amurka a cikin shirin su na kai hari kan Iran:
- Kashe masana kimiyyar nukiliya domin kawar da shirin nukiliya na Iran daga tushe.
- Kashe manyan hafsoshin sojan Iran don hana su gudanar da yaƙi da kyau bayan wani mummunan hari mai ɗaukar hankali — da kuma samun nasara cikin hanzari saboda rashin shugabanci mai ƙarfi.
- Rushe dukkan cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran.
- Rushe cibiyoyin gina makaman rokoki.
- Kai hare-haren yanar gizo (cyber attacks) don lalata tsarin kuɗi da tattalin arzikin Iran.
- Kaddamar da hare-haren ‘yan kunar bakin wake ta hanyar dubban ‘yan leƙen asiri da aka horar a cikin ‘yan shekarun da suka wuce domin wannan hari.
- Amfani da jiragen yaƙi F‑35 da jiragen bom B2 wajen kai manyan hare-hare.
- Haifar da rikici da rikitarwa (hargitsi) cikin Iran da fatan kifar da tsarin gwamnati.
- Kare Isra’ila daga hare-haren rokokin Iran ta amfani da garkuwar kariya (multi-layer defense system) domin rage asara.
- Dakatar da tattaunawar nukiliya da tilasta wa Iran mika wuya bayan hari.
Kashe Masana Kimiyyar Nukiliya na Iran
Ko da yake Isra’ila ta sami nasarar kashe wasu daga cikin fitattun masana kimiyyar nukiliya na Iran, amma hakan bai dakatar da shirin nukiliyar ƙasar ba. A cikin shekarun da suka gabata ma an tabbatar da cewa kashe manyan mutane ba zai hana ci gaban shirin nukiliya ba, domin akwai kwararru masu kwarewa da suka maye gurbin waɗanda suka rasa rayukansu.
Kashe Shugabannin Sojan Iran
Isra’ila ta yi tunanin cewa abin da ta aikata a Lebanon — inda ta kashe shugabanni da dama daga Hezbollah da Hamas — wanda ya janyo rudani ga juyin juya hali a yankin, za ta iya maimaita hakan a Iran.
Amma sun yi kuskure wajen fahimtar cewa Iran tana da gogaggun kwamandoji da shugabannin soja tun bayan yaƙin shekaru 8 da Saddam (yaƙin Iran-Iraq). Saboda haka, Iran ba ta fuskanci wata matsala ta shugabanci ko tsari ba lokacin da aka kai mata hari, domin dakarunta da kuma waɗanda suka gaji shugabannin da suka rasa rayukansu sun ɗauki ragamar lamarin da nutsuwa da ƙwarewa, ba tare da rudani ko saurin yanke shawara ba.
Rushe Tashoshin Nukiliya
Isra’ila da Amurka sun kai hari tare kan cibiyoyin nukiliya na Iran. Amma sakamakon hakan kawai shi ne lalacewar jiki (fizik) na wasu sassan gine-gine, ba tare da an samu wata babbar asara ba.
Har ila yau, babu wani sahihin rahoto da ya nuna cewa sansanin “Fordow” ya samu babbar illa.
A maimakon haka, hotunan tauraron dan adam sun nuna cewa Iran ta riga ta kwashe kimanin kilo 400 na uranium da aka tace daga Fordow kafin harin Amurka, ta hanyar manyan motoci. Don haka, harin da Amurka ta kai a daren tsakar dare ya fuskanci gagara-badau.
Rushe Cibiyoyin Makaman Rokoki
Isra’ila ta san da ƙarfafa da Iran ke da shi wajen makaman rokoki — daga kariya har zuwa hari. Don haka, a farkon yakin, ta fara yunkurin lalata wadannan cibiyoyi ta amfani da jiragen yaki, drones da karamin jiragen leƙen asiri.
Amma duk da haka, lokacin da suka yi tsammanin sun dakile ƙarfin rokoki na Iran, abin mamaki ya same su da harin “Bisharatul Fath” — wanda Iran ta kai ta hanyar rokokin ta kan sansanin sojojin Amurka a al-Udeid.
Daga nan ne Isra’ila da Amurka suka fahimci cewa tashoshin rokokin Iran har yanzu suna aiki cikin ƙarfi, kuma Iran tana da ikon kare kanta daga kowanne hari.
Bayan haka ne Amurka da Isra’ila suka rikice, suka koma neman tsagaita wuta domin su guje wa irin hare-haren da Iran ke shirin kai musu, musamman ganin cewa sassan garkuwar kariya na Isra’ila sun lalace
Hare-Haren Cyber (Yanar Gizo)
Ko da yake Isra’ila ta samu nasarar kai hare-haren yanar gizo sau da dama — inda ta yi wa tsarin tsaron Iran da tsarin kuɗinta kutse — wadannan gibin tsaro an gano su da wuri kuma an gyara su cikin gaggawa.
Musamman a safiyar rana ta farko da Isra’ila ta fara hari, an samu dan jinkiri wajen tsaron garkuwa (defense) saboda harin cyber, amma masu kutse daga Iran sun gyara lamarin cikin gaggawa, kuma an mayar da ƙarfin kariya da na hari na Iran cikin kankanin
Hare-Haren ‘Yan Kunar Bakin Wake da Kananan Drones
Mossad da sauran ‘yan leƙen asirin Isra’ila sun shigo ƙasar Iran cikin shekaru da dama da nufin shirya wadannan hare-hare.
Amma sakamakon ingantaccen leƙen asiri da haɗin kai daga jama’a, an kama fiye da mutane 800 da ke da hannu, tare da kwato sama da drones 10,000 da aka tanada don aikata ta’addanci. Wannan ya katse shirin Isra’ila gaba ɗaya.
Kokarin Kifar da Gwamnatin Iran da Kashe Jagoran Juyin Juya Hali
Isra’ila da Amurka sun yi tsammanin za su yi amfani da jin ƙunarta da jama’a ke da shi don tayar da fitina, su sa mutane su fito kan tituna.
Amma hakan ba ya faru ba — maimakon haka, da dama daga cikin ‘yan adawa na cikin gida da na waje sun yi tir da hare-haren Isra’ila, wanda ya sa Isra’ila ta kasance ita kaɗai cikin fagen rikicin.
Harin da aka kai gidan kurkukun Evin na daga cikin yunƙurin su na sako wasu jagororin adawa, amma ya faskara.
Har ila yau, sun yi ƙoƙarin kashe Jagoran Juyin Juya Hali, amma tsaron sa ya fuskance su da basira, kuma yanzu yana cikin ƙoshin lafiya yana jan ragamar yaƙin nan.
A ƙarshe, wannan yaki ba ya raba gwamnati da jama’a ba, a maimakon haka ya ƙarfafa haɗin kan ƙasa. Kamar yadda wani fitaccen ɗan adawa ya ce:
“Wannan yaki ya jinkirta faduwar Jamhuriyar Musulunci da shekaru 20.”
Hana Rokokin Iran Sauka a Isra’ila
Iran ta tabbatar da cewa tsarin kare Isra’ila daga makaman roka ba ya aiki yadda suke ikirari ba.
Daga nisan kilomita 1500, Iran ta bugi wasu muhimman wurare a Isra’ila — kamar matatar mai ta Haifa, sansanonin soja, tashoshin wutar lantarki da cibiyoyin leƙen asiri.
Rokokin Iran sun haifar da firgici ga jama’ar Isra’ila, har suka fara rokon a kawo karshen yaki, domin ba za su iya jure yaki mai tsawo da Iran ba, musamman ganin cewa kowanne hari na Iran na zuwa da sabon mamaki.
Amfani da Jiragen Yaƙi Masu Ƙarfi
Daya daga cikin manyan kunyatar da Isra’ila da Amurka suka fuskanta shi ne gazawar amfani da bom din “GBU‑57” da suka yi a sansanin Fordow, wanda suka yi tsammanin zai rushe duk abin da ke ciki.
Kazalika, jirgin yaki F‑35 da aka ce ba zai taba faɗuwa ba, an harbe shi, wannan ya raunana kwarin gwiwar sojojin su da jama’a.
A dalilin haka, ikon sojan ƙasashen biyu ya fuskanci tambaya daga kowane fanni.
Bayan haka, duk tsawon kwanakin yaki, sun fahimci cewa garkuwar su kamar “David’s Sling”, “Arrow‑3” da “THAAD” ba su iya tsayawa gaban rokokin hypersonic na Iran.
Karshen Tattaunawar Nukiliya
Isra’ila shekaru da dama tana adawa da yarjejeniyar nukiliya tsakanin Iran da Yamma.
Ta yi tunanin cewa da zarar ta kai hari, za ta rushe shirin nukiliyar Iran gaba ɗaya. Amma bayan nasarar Iran a yaki, shirin ya ci gaba da karfi fiye da da.
Don haka, Amurka ta sake buɗe tattaunawa, domin ta fahimci bata da wata hanyar daban illa sulhu.
Idan har sun samu nasarar rushe shirin, me ya sa yanzu suke son sulhu?
Wannan ya tabbatar da cewa hari bai kai ga burin su ba, kuma sulhu yana daga matsayi na rauni ne, ba iko ba.
Wanda ya ci yaki ba ya nema tsagaita wuta
A ƙarshe, ya kamata a fahimta:
Wanda ya ci yaki ba ya roƙon tsagaita wuta.
Amma Isra’ila ita ce ta fara nema, ta nemi taimakon Amurka domin ta guji ci gaba da lalacewa.
Amurka ta nemi Iran ta tsaya da hare-hare, a matsayin lada kuma ta dage takunkumin sayar da man fetur Iran ga China, babbar mai siya.
Daga ko wane bangare mutum ya duba wannan yaki na kwanaki 12, bai nuna nasarar Isra’ila ba, sai gazawa.
Baya ga lalata wasu gine-gine na Iran, ba su cimma wata babbar nasara ba.
A madadin haka, karfin Iran ya ƙaru a idon duniya, kuma nan ba da jimawa ba, za a ga tasirin hakan a harkokin diflomasiyya.
A yanzu, Isra’ila da Amurka kamar macizai rauni, suna kokarin murmurewa da sake farawa.
Masu mulki a Iran kada su yarda da wannan tsagaitar wuta maras ƙarfi da tabbas.